Your Retirement Plan Wasn’t Built for Pandemics, Wars, or AI—Now What?

Every retirement plan looks solid…

Until real life kicks the door in.

We’re talking about pandemics, proxy wars, trillion-dollar deficits, and AI that’s already rewriting job descriptions across the federal landscape.

And yet—most TSP strategies are still built on assumptions from a quieter world:

• Predictable markets

• Predictable inflation

• Predictable taxes

• Predictable work

That world? It’s gone.

The Problem Most Retirement Plans Ignore

Traditional planning assumes stability. But here's what that mindset misses:

1. Sequence Risk in a Volatile World

If markets crash in your first 5 years of retirement, the damage to your TSP withdrawals could be permanent.

2. The AI Disruption Nobody's Planning For

AI isn’t just replacing private sector jobs. It’s rewriting federal tasks—and could reshape hiring, workloads, and early retirement incentives faster than HR can draft a policy.

3. Global Tensions That Hit Closer Than You Think

When conflict escalates, federal budgets shift. That impacts COLAs, FEHB premiums, G Fund stability, and more.

4. Healthcare: More Expensive. Less Predictable.

Post-COVID, the FEHB safety net is showing cracks—especially for retirees managing complex care or considering overseas moves.

So… What Do You Do?

This isn’t a call to panic. It’s a call to adapt.

Here’s how smart federal retirees are building resilient retirement strategies for an unpredictable world:

✅ Create a “Chaos Fund”

Keep 1–2 years of expenses in stable, liquid assets (think G Fund, I Bonds, or cash) to avoid forced TSP withdrawals during downturns.

✅ Diversify Beyond the TSP

Even a modest Roth IRA or after-tax brokerage account can give you crucial flexibility when tax laws or market conditions shift.

✅ Model “Crisis Scenarios” Now

What happens if the market drops 30%? If FEHB premiums spike? If you live to 97? Build plans for each.

✅ Rethink Location Strategy

Where you retire (and where you pay taxes) matters more than ever—especially with global instability and uneven healthcare access.

✅ Tax-Strategic Withdrawals

Roth conversions, timing distributions, and managing your taxable income window can help you stay nimble under shifting policy.

The smartest federal retirees aren’t trying to predict the future.

They’re preparing for a few futures—just in case.

And that’s not being paranoid.

It’s being a professional.

—FWR