Why I Don’t Want You to Follow TSP Success Stories Blindly

June 19, 2025

We all love a good success story.

It’s inspiring to hear about federal employees who built million-dollar TSP accounts.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:

Many of those success stories succeeded in spite of their strategies — not because of them.

⚠ The trap no one talks about: survivor bias

When you hear about a TSP millionaire who went all-in on the C Fund…

Or someone who maxed out contributions every year without fail…

You’re seeing the tip of the iceberg.

What you don’t see:

  • The retirees who followed the same plan but retired into a market crash

  • The ones derailed by health issues or unexpected debt

  • The failures that don’t get written up in newsletters or seminars

Here are a few things to look out for:

🔍 Three “success habits” that could backfire if you copy them

1️⃣ Go 100% into the C Fund — it worked for me!
This worked during bull markets, but others retired at the wrong moment and paid the price.

2️⃣ Max contributions no matter what.
Some thrived doing this. Others drained emergency savings or carried expensive debt longer than they should have.

3️⃣ Stay entirely in TSP — it’s safer.
Many overlook smart options outside TSP that can reduce taxes or improve income flexibility.

✅ A smarter way to model your retirement

  • Study failures as well as successes

  • Focus on a process that holds up even when things go wrong

  • Stress-test your plan against market downturns, inflation, and emergencies

And before you model your retirement after a TSP success story, ask yourself:

Am I seeing the full picture — or just the lucky few who made it?

Best,
—Federal Wealth Retirement