Up 10% This Month? Why That Could Be a Bad Sign

July 07, 2025

Every Fed loves seeing green in their TSP.

When the C Fund rallies, it feels like the system’s finally working in your favor.

But here’s what the top 1% of investors know:

Big short-term gains often hide growing risk.

And the bigger the bounce, the more fragile it may be.

The Hidden Risk of a Hot Market

A 10% surge sounds great—until you look under the hood.

Here’s what you might find:

  • Overbought conditions: When momentum indicators like RSI cross 70, that’s not a signal to buy—it’s a flashing yellow light.

  • Mean reversion: Markets don’t move in straight lines. What goes up fast... tends to come back to earth just as quickly.

  • Volatility lag: The VIX often stays quiet until risk suddenly spikes. By then, it’s too late to adjust.

Behavioral trap alert: This is when most Feds double down—chasing recent returns right before a reversal.

What Smart Feds Do Instead

They don’t guess. They don’t follow the crowd.

They scan for signal mismatches:

  • Is volatility rising while stocks push higher?

  • Is momentum slowing?

  • Is breadth narrowing—even if prices stay up?

But if you don’t want to check a dozen indicators each morning, you don’t have to.

Opening Bell Daily gives you everything you need

Because keeping your gains matters more than chasing new ones.

Best
—FWR