TSP at Record Highs? Here’s How Smart Feds Lock In Gains

(Without Missing More Growth)

August 11, 2025

You log into your TSP… and there it is: the highest balance you’ve ever seen.

It feels good — but so did 2007. And 2019.

Both times, it took only months for those record numbers to shrink by double digits.

And if you’re within 5 years of retirement, a drop now isn’t just a “paper loss.”

It could mean:

  • Delaying your retirement date.

  • Cutting your monthly income for life.

  • Missing out on travel, relocation, or other plans you’ve been counting on.

So, if you answer “yes” to any of these, you need a Peak Market Plan now:

  • Has your TSP grown more than 15% in the last 12 months?

  • Are you within 5 years of your planned retirement?

  • Would a 20% drop erase at least 2 years of growth in your account?

The 5-Step Peak Market Playbook

1. Run a Lock-In Audit

Log into TSP.gov and see exactly how much of your current balance is a gain from the last year. Decide what portion to protect now.

2. Shift from “All Growth” to “Growth + Guardrails”

Example: If you’re 80% in C/S/I Funds, move 10–20% into the G or F Fund to create a volatility buffer.

3. Set Forward-Looking Profit Targets (Your Offense)

Instead of waiting for losses, decide in advance how much gain is “enough” before trimming risk:

  • C Fund: Lock in part of your position after a 25%+ year-to-date gain.

  • S Fund: Trim after a 30%+ gain in the last 12 months.

  • I Fund: Lock in after 20%+ gain (international rallies reverse fast).

When your target is hit: Shift 10–20% of that fund into the G or F Fund to preserve a slice of the win.

4. Pair Profit Targets With Reentry Rules (Your Defense FOMO)

Selling high is easy — buying back in without fear is the hard part. Set a reentry trigger now:

  • Pullback Rule: Move “safe” money back into growth after that fund drops 8–10% from its high and shows 3–5 days of stabilization.

  • Trend Recovery Rule: Reenter when the fund closes above its 50-day moving average for 5 straight days after a drop.

  • Partial Reentry: Redeploy in 2–3 stages to smooth out timing risk.

5. Insure Against Sequence Risk

Calculate 2–3 years of retirement income needs and hold that amount in low-volatility funds now, while your account is up.

Most retirement experts tell you to “just ride it out.”

But Federal retirees have a unique challenge: once you start FERS and TSP withdrawals, you can’t simply “pause” for a market recovery.

Protecting your high-water mark now could be the difference between choice and compromise in retirement.

Best,
—FWR