If you had to retire 5 years early... what breaks first?

A retirement date on a calendar feels solid — until it isn’t.

Reorganizations, buyouts, a health curveball, or a family situation can move the finish line without asking permission.

Today’s goal isn’t to build a perfect plan.

It’s to run a quick resilience check…

If your date shifted forward by five years, would the pressure show up first in cashflow, coverage, or withdrawals?

The 3-number test

You only need three numbers. Write them down somewhere you’ll actually find later.

Number 1: Your Essentials (Monthly)

This is your “keep the lights on” spending.

Essentials = housing + food + utilities + insurance + minimum debt + prescriptions

If you’re not sure, round up. Underestimating is the common mistake.

Number 2: Your Floor (Monthly)

This is income you’d still have if work ended earlier than planned.

Examples: pension (if it would start right away), VA benefits, spouse income you can truly rely on.

Number 3: Your 5-Year Gap

Now one line of math:

(Essentials − Floor) × 60

That’s your “five-year missing paycheck” estimate.

Example:

Essentials = $5,800/mo
Floor = $3,900/mo
Gap = ($5,800 − $3,900) × 60
Gap = $1,900 × 60 = $114,000

You don’t need this to be perfect. You need it to be real.

Now circle what breaks first

A) The gap is bigger than my cushion

If the five-year number makes you uneasy, that’s your weak point.

Not your fund choice — your runway.

The simple fix: build a small “decision buffer.”

Start with 3 months of essentials somewhere stable.

For many readers, that’s a G Fund-heavy slice or a separate savings bucket — whatever keeps you from selling long-term investments at the wrong time.

This week: set one automatic transfer (even small). Momentum beats ambition.

B) Health coverage becomes the problem

Early retirement math can be manageable…

And still get wrecked by coverage confusion or premium shock.

You don’t need to memorize benefit rules to improve this. You just need a fallback plan that isn’t guesswork.

Write one sentence:

Then write the backup:

This week: schedule one call or send one email — to HR/benefits, your agency retirement counselor, or a trusted benefits resource — and ask only what you need to confirm those two lines.

C) Withdrawals would get improvised

A lot of retirement damage comes from a very normal decision: pulling money from the easiest place and hoping taxes behave.

You don’t need a complex withdrawal strategy today. You need a default rule you can follow when life is noisy.

A clean default many retirees use as a starting point:

• Keep 12 months of essentials in stable money

• Spend from the “bridge” portion on a schedule

• Leave long-term growth money alone as much as possible

This week: write your default rule down and store it with your retirement documents. Under stress, written rules beat memory.

The one-minute upgrade

If you want to make this even more useful without adding effort, add one more line:

Gap ÷ current TSP balance = “how much of my TSP is the five-year bridge?”

Example:
Gap = $114,000
TSP = $450,000
Bridge share ≈ 25%

That single percentage helps you stop thinking of TSP as one giant pot — and start thinking in roles: runway, bridge, long-term.

The takeaway

A five-year-early retirement scenario doesn’t require a master plan to improve. It requires clarity on your weakest link.

Best,
—FWR