COLA Watch: 2026 Adjustment Tracks at 2.5% With 2 Months Left

The latest COLA tracker is in — and with two months remaining in the count, the projected 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) stands at 2.5%.

📊 This estimate is based on CPI-W data from July, with the final figure to be determined after September numbers are in.

While 2.5% is modest compared to recent years, it still reflects persistent inflationary pressure.

Why this matters for you:

• Federal retirees and Social Security recipients use this COLA to offset rising costs.

• If you’re planning your 2025–2026 income needs, this early estimate can help you forecast more accurately.

• For FERS retirees, remember: only the CPI-W-based COLA (minus the formula cap) applies to your annuity portion—not the full increase unless inflation hits 3%+.

🔎 We'll keep tracking the data and send an update after the August CPI-W release.

Stay tuned,
—FWR